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CPHC Addresses Viral Wind Models Showing Cyclone Hitting State

August 17, 2015, 11:23 AM HST
* Updated August 17, 2:29 PM
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CPHC 2:00 p.m. update image

CPHC 2:00 p.m. update image

(Updated at 2:30 p.m.)

By Meteorologist Malika Dudley

The latest Central Pacific Hurricane Center update puts chances of formation slightly higher at 50% as of the 2:00 p.m. update. We will keep an eye on this and bring you the latest.

Wind Model via Windyty.com - August 24, 2015

Wind Model via Windyty.com – August 24, 2015

(Updated at 11:30 a.m.)

By Meteorologist Malika Dudley / Email: [email protected]

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Recently, the wind model to the right has been going viral on social media. MauiNOW has had several inquiries about whether it’s a hoax or reality. Our readers are asking what exactly this model is showing and if they should be concerned.

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Bob Ballard, a forecaster at the National Weather Service Honolulu office, addressed the issue in his latest forecast discussion.

The computer models remain fairly bullish about developing a tropical cyclone in the monsoon trough far to the southeast of the islands. As far as local effects go, this is climatologically an area of some concern for the Aloha State. However, by the weekend, there is a spread of over 600 miles among the various models in where this future system would be IF it develops. Also, the models have an especially difficult time with the tracks of tropical cyclones that have not yet developed, as well as with the various factors that steer them in the long range. We will keep a close eye on this area in the coming days and should get a better idea of what will actually happen as time goes on.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center released this update at 8:00 a.m. for an area of potential development near 140°W.

CPHC 8 a.m. update image

CPHC 8 a.m. update image

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Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii remain disorganized. Environmental conditions support development over the next couple of days as the low remains nearly stationary. Formation chance through 48 hours is medium at 40 percent. Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday morning.

Chris Brenchley, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, spoke to MauiNOW’s Meteorologist Malika Dudley for the latest update on tropical cyclone activity around the Hawaiian Islands.

If a tropical cyclone even develops we don’t know where it may end up. There is a lot of uncertainty that far out. But at the same time there’s that convective activity down around 140°W, down in the area where we typically look for possible development, so we are closely monitoring it right now. There’s no indication that anything has developed yet but we are raising the awareness of that and that’s why we went 40%.

There are models that show tropical cyclone activity near the state and there are others that don’t. There’s a spread of 600 miles on the various models. We just want to make sure that people aren’t latching onto one particular solution and rather just being generally prepared.

For the public it’s good to be prepared for a hurricane, especially in this active season that we’re having. With the goal being to be prepared for potential future hurricane threats not specifically one particular day but prepare early and remain prepared throughout the season.

Your weather team at MauiNOW will continue to monitor tropical cyclone activity throughout hurricane season and bring you the latest.

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