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Olivia Monday Updates: Maui Under Tropical Storm Warning

September 10, 2018, 5:10 AM HST
* Updated September 10, 11:42 PM
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UPDATE: 11 P.M. HST 9.10.18

Olivia remains a strong tropical storm with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph and higher gusts, according to the latest 11 p.m. update issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

At 11 p.m. HST on Monday, Sept. 10, 2018, the center of Tropical Storm Olivia was located by aircraft 355 miles ENE of Hilo; 415 miles ENE of Kailua-Kona; 420 miles ENE of South Point; 390 miles ENE of Hāna; 415 miles E of Kahului; 450 miles E of Kaunakakai; 450 miles E of Lānaʻi City; 505 miles E of Honolulu (near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 150.1 West).

Olivia continues on a forward path toward the west near 9 mph. A turn to the west and WSW is expected early Tuesday, with this general motion continuing for the next couple of days.

According to the latest forecast from the CPHC, the center of Olivia will be moving over the main Hawaiian Islands late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Olivia is expected to remain a tropical storm as it moves over the islands.

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Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.

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Tropical Storm WARNING remains in effect for Maui County (including the islands of Maui, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi and Kahoʻolawe) Oʻahu and Hawaiʻi Counties. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Kauaʻi and Niʻihau. The warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours.

According to the latest forecast discussion issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, “The updated track forecast is shifted just slightly to the south of the previous, mostly after day 2, so the track forecast near the islands has changed little.”

LOCAL AREA FORECASTS: (Click here for a drop down menu of your local area forecast)
*Below are some highlights as of 11:13 p.m. HST from the local area report for specific areas around Maui County:

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WEST MAUI: (Lahaina, Olowalu, Kāʻanapali and Nāpili)  Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 80 mph. Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Wednesday morning until early Thursday morning.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts

WINDWARD WEST MAUI (Including Wailuku) Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 80 mph. Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Wednesday morning until early Thursday morning.  Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas. Window of concern: early Wednesday morning until early Wednesday afternoon.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 8-12 inches, with locally higher amounts.

CENTRAL VALLEY: (Kahului, Puʻunēnē and Māʻalaea)  Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 75 mph. Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Wednesday morning until early Thursday morning. Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas. Window of concern: early Wednesday morning until early Wednesday afternoon.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts.

WINDWARD HALEAKALA: (Haʻikū, Hāna and Kīpahulu)   Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 75 mph. Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday evening until early Thursday morning.  Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas. Window of concern: early Wednesday morning until early Wednesday afternoon.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 6-10 inches, with locally higher amounts.

LEEWARD HALEAKALA (Kīhei and Mākena)  Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 70 mph. Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Wednesday morning until early Thursday morning.  Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas. Window of concern: early Wednesday morning until early Wednesday afternoon.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts.

HALEAKALA SUMMIT:  Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 70 mph. Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Wednesday morning until early Thursday morning.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 8-12 inches, with locally higher amounts.

LANAI MAKAI (Mānele):  Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 80 mph. Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Wednesday morning until early Thursday morning.  Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas. Window of concern: early Wednesday morning until early Wednesday afternoon.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts.

LANAI MAUKA (Lānaʻi City):  Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 75 mph. Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Wednesday morning until early Thursday morning. Peak Rainfall Amounts: 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts.

MOLOKAI WINDWARD (Kalaupapa):  Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 80 mph. Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Wednesday morning until early Thursday morning.  Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas. Window of concern: early Wednesday morning until early Wednesday afternoon.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 8-12 inches, with locally higher amounts.

MOLOKAI LEEWARD (Kaunakakai):   Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 80 mph. Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Wednesday morning until early Thursday morning. Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas. Window of concern: early Wednesday morning until early Wednesday afternoon.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts.

According to the latest situation overview issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at 11:30 p.m. on 9.10.18:

“Olivia is expected to bring strong winds, heavy rainfall, and high surf to parts of the state this week. Olivia is forecast to close in on the main Hawaiian Islands Tuesday, then move over portions of the island chain Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maui and the Big Island will be the first to experience impacts from Olivia. Do not focus on the exact forecast track or intensity of the storm and be prepared for changes in future forecasts. Also, keep in mind that although Olivia is forecast to be a weaker storm near the islands than Lane, the impacts of Olivia could be significantly worse due to its passage directly over the islands.

“Damaging tropical storm force winds are expected to begin as soon as late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday evening across Maui and the Big Island. Additionally, hurricane force wind gusts are possible as Olivia moves across the state Tuesday night and Wednesday. Remember that the mountainous terrain of Hawaiʻi can produce localized areas of highly enhanced winds, even well away from the tropical cyclone center.

“The chance for flooding rainfall will increase rapidly Tuesday night and remain a significant threat through Thursday. Storm total rainfall amounts are expected to be around 10 to 15 inches, with isolated areas up to 20 inches. Much of this will be focused on windward areas of the islands, especially from Oahu through the Big Island, however, flooding is still a significant threat for all areas.

“Swells and surf generated by Tropical Storm Olivia will continue to slowly build through Tuesday, and reach damaging levels on some east facing shores Tuesday and Wednesday. Surf heights along east facing shores are expected to reach up to 20 feet across Maui County and the Big Island, and 10 to 15 feet on all other islands. This surf is expected to result in significant beach erosion and overwash onto vulnerable coastal roadways, particularly during high tides.”

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over Maui County and the Big Island starting late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over Oʻahu starting late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible over Kauaʻi County starting Wednesday afternoon or evening.

RAINFALL: Olivia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF: Large swells generated by Olivia will impact the main Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days. This will cause surf to build, mainly along exposed east facing shores, and surf may become damaging.

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UPDATE: 8 P.M. HST 9.10.18

Olivia remains a strong tropical storm with 70 mph sustained winds and higher gusts.  The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is forecasting gradual weakening during the next 48 hours, but Olivia is expected to remain a tropical storm as it moves across the islands.

At 8 p.m. HST on Monday, Sept. 10, 2018, the center of Tropical Storm Olivia was located 370 miles ENE of Hilo; 425 miles ENE of Kailua-Kona; 430 miles ENE of South Point; 400 miles E of Hāna; 430 miles E of Kahului; 460 miles E of Kaunakakai; 460 miles E of Lānaʻi City; and 520 miles E of Honolulu (near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 149.9 West).

Olivia is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph. A turn to the west and WSW is expected later tonight, with this general motion continuing for the next couple of days, according to the CPHC.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center.

Olivia will be moving over the main Hawaiian Islands late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Tropical Storm WARNING remains in effect for Maui County (including the islands of Maui, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi and Kahoʻolawe) Oʻahu and Hawaiʻi Counties. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Kauaʻi and Niʻihau. The warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours.

Forecasters with the CPHC advise the public to resist the temptation to make comparisons between Hurricane Lane and Hurricane Olivia. “Although Lane was a stronger tropical cyclone near the islands, it did not bring direct core impacts to the state. In some areas, Olivia could bring significantly worse impacts than were felt by Lane,” CPHC forecasters said in their latest update.

According to the latest forecast discussion issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, a recent pass by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters shows “disorganized  banding mainly to the northeast of the center. This seems to  indicate that Olivia is beginning to feel the effects of stronger shear.”

The latest track was also nudged slightly to the north.  According to the CPHC, “This slightly north-of-west motion may be due to the tropical cyclone beginning to feel the effects of the increasing shear.”

LOCAL AREA FORECASTS: (Click here for a drop down menu of your local area forecast)
*Below are some highlights as of 4:53 p.m. HST from the local area report for specific areas around Maui County:

WEST MAUI: (Lahaina, Olowalu, Kāʻanapali and Nāpili)   Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 80 mph.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts.  Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas.

WINDWARD WEST MAUI (Including Wailuku)  Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 80 mph.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 8-12 inches, with locally higher amounts.

CENTRAL VALLEY: (Kahului, Puʻunēnē and Māʻalaea)  Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 75 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts.  Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas.

WINDWARD HALEAKALA: (Haʻikū, Hāna and Kīpahulu)  Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 75 mph.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 6-10 inches, with locally higher amounts.  Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas.

LEEWARD HALEAKALA (Kīhei and Mākena)  Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 70 mph.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts.  Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas.

HALEAKALA SUMMIT:  Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 70 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 8-12 inches, with locally higher amounts.

LANAI MAKAI (Mānele):  Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 80 mph.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts. Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas.

LANAI MAUKA (Lānaʻi City): Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 75 mph.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts.

MOLOKAI WINDWARD (Kalaupapa):  Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 80 mph.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 8-12 inches, with locally higher amounts. Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas.

MOLOKAI LEEWARD (Kaunakakai):   Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 80 mph.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts.  Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center issued a local statement at around 5 p.m. with the following impact and timing information:

“Damaging tropical storm force winds are expected to begin as early as Tuesday afternoon across Maui and the Big Island. Additionally, hurricane force wind gusts are possible as Olivia moves across the state Tuesday night and Wednesday. Remember that the mountainous terrain of Hawaiʻi can produce localized areas of highly enhanced winds, even well away from the tropical cyclone center.

“The chance for flooding rainfall will increase rapidly late Tuesday and remain a significant threat through Thursday. Storm total rainfall amounts are expected to be around 10 to 15 inches, with isolated areas up to 20 inches. Much of this will be focused on windward areas of the islands of Maui County and the Big Island, however, flooding is still a significant threat for all areas.

“Swells and surf generated by Tropical Storm Olivia will continue to slowly build through Tuesday, and reach damaging levels on some east facing shores Tuesday and Wednesday. Surf heights along east facing shores are expected to reach up to 20 feet on Maui and the Big Island, and 10 to 15 feet on all other islands. This surf is expected to result in significant beach erosion and overwash onto vulnerable coastal roadways, particularly during high tides.”

The latest area synopsis for the state, issued by the National Weather Service indicates that moderate trades will hold through tonight, then gradually increase as Tropical Storm Olivia approaches the state Tuesday. “Olivia is forecast to pass over the island chain Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. Wet weather will continue into Friday as Olivia as an upper low passes near the northwest end of the state. A drying trend appears likely this weekend,” according to the NWS.

Tropical Storm – winds 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 – winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 – winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 – winds 111-129 mph (96-112 kt)
Category 4 – winds 130-156 mph (113-136 kt)
Category 5 – winds 157 mph and up (137+ kt)

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UPDATE: 5 PM. HST 9.10.18

Olivia has maintained its intensity as a high level tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph and higher gusts.  The system is forecast to continue a gradual weakening trend over the next 48 hours, but is expected to remain a tropical storm as it moves across the islands. Olivia’s forward movement towards the west increased slightly during the latest 5 p.m. update to 10 mph.

Forecasters with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center advise the public to keep in mind that “just because Olivia is forecast to be a weaker storm than Lane, the impacts could be significantly worse due to its passage directly over the islands.”

At 5 p.m. HST on Monday, Sept. 10, 2018, the center of Tropical Storm Olivia was located 375 miles ENE of Hilo; 435 miles ENE of Kailua-Kona; 440 miles ENE of South Point; 410 miles E of Hāna; 440 miles E of Kahului; 475 miles E of Kaunakakai; 475 miles E of Lānaʻi City; and 530 miles E of Honolulu (near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 149.7 West).

Tropical Storm WARNING remains in effect for Maui County (including the islands of Maui, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi and Kahoʻolawe) Oʻahu and Hawaiʻi Counties. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Kauaʻi and Niʻihau. The warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours.

Forecasters with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center say a continued west to WSW motion is expected for the next few days.

According to the CPHC, Olivia will be moving over the main Hawaiian Islands late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center.

Forecasters with the CPHC advise the public to resist the temptation to make comparisons between Hurricane Lane and Hurricane Olivia. “Although Lane was a stronger tropical cyclone near the islands, it did not bring direct core impacts to the state. In some areas, Olivia could bring significantly worse impacts than were felt by Lane,” CPHC forecasters said in their latest update.

According to the latest forecast discussion issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, a recent pass by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters shows “disorganized  banding mainly to the northeast of the center. This seems to  indicate that Olivia is beginning to feel the effects of stronger shear.”

The latest track was also nudged slightly to the north.  According to the CPHC, “This slightly north-of-west motion may be due to the tropical cyclone beginning to feel the effects of the increasing shear.”

LOCAL AREA FORECASTS: (Click here for a drop down menu of your local area forecast)
*Below are some highlights as of 4:53 p.m. HST from the local area report for specific areas around Maui County:

WEST MAUI: (Lahaina, Olowalu, Kāʻanapali and Nāpili)   Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 80 mph.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts.  Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas.

WINDWARD WEST MAUI (Including Wailuku)  Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 80 mph.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 8-12 inches, with locally higher amounts.

CENTRAL VALLEY: (Kahului, Puʻunēnē and Māʻalaea)  Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 75 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts.  Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas.

WINDWARD HALEAKALA: (Haʻikū, Hāna and Kīpahulu)  Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 75 mph.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 6-10 inches, with locally higher amounts.  Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas.

LEEWARD HALEAKALA (Kīhei and Mākena)  Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 70 mph.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts.  Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas.

HALEAKALA SUMMIT:  Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 70 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 8-12 inches, with locally higher amounts.

LANAI MAKAI (Mānele):  Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 80 mph.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts. Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas.

LANAI MAUKA (Lānaʻi City): Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 75 mph.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts.

MOLOKAI WINDWARD (Kalaupapa):  Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 80 mph.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 8-12 inches, with locally higher amounts. Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas.

MOLOKAI LEEWARD (Kaunakakai):   Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 80 mph.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts.  Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center issued a local statement at around 5 p.m. with the following impact and timing information:

“Damaging tropical storm force winds are expected to begin as early as Tuesday afternoon across Maui and the Big Island. Additionally, hurricane force wind gusts are possible as Olivia moves across the state Tuesday night and Wednesday. Remember that the mountainous terrain of Hawaiʻi can produce localized areas of highly enhanced winds, even well away from the tropical cyclone center.

“The chance for flooding rainfall will increase rapidly late Tuesday and remain a significant threat through Thursday. Storm total rainfall amounts are expected to be around 10 to 15 inches, with isolated areas up to 20 inches. Much of this will be focused on windward areas of the islands of Maui County and the Big Island, however, flooding is still a significant threat for all areas.

“Swells and surf generated by Tropical Storm Olivia will continue to slowly build through Tuesday, and reach damaging levels on some east facing shores Tuesday and Wednesday. Surf heights along east facing shores are expected to reach up to 20 feet on Maui and the Big Island, and 10 to 15 feet on all other islands. This surf is expected to result in significant beach erosion and overwash onto vulnerable coastal roadways, particularly during high tides.”

The latest area synopsis for the state, issued by the National Weather Service indicates that moderate trades will hold through tonight, then gradually increase as Tropical Storm Olivia approaches the state Tuesday. “Olivia is forecast to pass over the island chain Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. Wet weather will continue into Friday as Olivia as an upper low passes near the northwest end of the state. A drying trend appears likely this weekend,” according to the NWS.

Tropical Storm – winds 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 – winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 – winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 – winds 111-129 mph (96-112 kt)
Category 4 – winds 130-156 mph (113-136 kt)
Category 5 – winds 157 mph and up (137+ kt)

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PREVIOUS POST: 

UPDATE: 2 P.M. hst 9.10.18

Olivia has been downgraded to a strong tropical storm as of 2 p.m. with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph.  At 2 p.m. HST on Monday, Sept. 10, 2018, the center of Olivia was located 415 miles ENE of Hilo; 475 miles ENE of Kailua-Kona; 475 miles ENE of South Point; 450 miles E of Hāna; 480 miles E of Kahului; 510 miles E of Kaunakakai; 510 miles E of Lānaʻi City; and 570 miles E of Honolulu (near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 149.1 West).

Tropical Storm WARNING remains in effect for Maui County (including the islands of Maui, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi and Kahoʻolawe) and Hawaiʻi County. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Oʻahu. The warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours.

Olivia is moving toward the west near 9 mph. A continued west to WSW motion is expected for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Olivia will be moving over the main Hawaiian Islands Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters recently found that Olivia has become a tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph, with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected as Olivia continues to approach the main Hawaiian Islands.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward from the center up to 105 miles.

LOCAL AREA FORECASTS: (Click here for a drop down menu of your local area forecast)
*Below are some highlights as of 10:58 a.m. HST from the local area report for specific areas around Maui County:

WEST MAUI: (Lahaina, Olowalu, Kāʻanapali and Nāpili)  Peak Wind Forecast: 45-60 mph with gusts to 85 mph.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts.

WINDWARD WEST MAUI (Including Wailuku) Peak Wind Forecast: 45-60 mph with gusts to 85 mph.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 8-12 inches, with locally higher amounts.

CENTRAL VALLEY: (Kahului, Puʻunēnē and Māʻalaea) Peak Wind Forecast: 45-60 mph with gusts to 85 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts.

WINDWARD HALEAKALA: (Haʻikū, Hāna and Kīpahulu) Peak Wind Forecast: 45-60 mph with gusts to 85 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 6-10 inches, with locally higher amounts.

HALEAKALA SUMMIT:  Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 75 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 8-12 inches, with locally higher amounts.

LANAI MAKAI (Mānele): Peak Wind Forecast: 45-60 mph with gusts to 85 mph.   Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts.

LANAI MAUKA (Lānaʻi City): Peak Wind Forecast: 45-60 mph with gusts to 85 mph.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts.

MOLOKAI WINDWARD (Kalaupapa): Peak Wind Forecast: 45-60 mph with gusts to 85 mph.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 8-12 inches, with locally higher amounts.

MOLOKAI LEEWARD (Kaunakakai):  Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 85 mph.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts.

According to the latest situation overview issued by the CPHC, “Hurricane Olivia is expected to bring strong winds, heavy rainfall, and high surf to parts of the state this week. Olivia is forecast to close in on the main Hawaiian Islands Tuesday and move over portions of the island chain Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maui and the Big Island will be the first to experience impacts from Olivia.”

The overview also included information relating to the onset of winds: “Damaging tropical storm force winds may begin as early as Tuesday afternoon across Maui and the Big Island. Additionally, hurricane force wind gusts are possible as Olivia moves across the state Tuesday night and Wednesday. It is important to remember that the mountainous terrain of Hawaiʻi can produce localized areas of highly enhanced winds, even well away from the tropical cyclone center.”

As for rain, the chance for flooding rainfall will increase rapidly late Tuesday and will remain a significant threat through at least Wednesday, according to the agency.  “Storm total rainfall amounts are expected to be around 10 to 15 inches, with isolated areas up to 20 inches.”

A continued west to WSW motion is expected for the next few days. Forecasters with the CPHC say the center of Olivia will be moving over the main Hawaiian Islands Tuesday night into Wednesday.

“I am asking all residents to do their part in getting ready for Hurricane Olivia.   The County’s absolute, number one priority is to ensure the safety of our residents and visitors.  We’ve worked all weekend to ensure that we’re prepared.  Together, let’s all be ready for Olivia,” said Mayor Arakawa. In an earlier update, Mayor Arakawa said the duration of impacts for Maui County would be an 8-12 hour period from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday morning.

“Please ensure your family has an emergency kit, shelter in place unless advised otherwise, and plan for power outages and flooded roads, fallen trees, landslides, and high surf,” said Mayor Arakawa.

Both Mayor Arakawa and Governor David Ige declared a state of emergency for the County of Maui and State of Hawaiʻi, respectively, that will provide relief for disaster damages, losses and suffering that may be caused by Olivia.  Even as a Tropical Storm, government officials say Hawaiʻi is in danger of experiencing high winds, heavy rains, high surf, storm surges and flooding that threaten to cause significant damage to public and private property.

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UPDATE: 11 a.m. HST 9.10.18

Olivia has slowed yet again in the latest 11 a.m. forecast to a forward path to the West at 9 mph. The intensity of the system also dropped down to previous levels with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph, which means Olivia is still a Category 1 hurricane.

Tropical Storm WARNING remains in effect for Maui County (including the islands of Maui, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi and Kahoʻolawe) and Hawaiʻi County. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Oʻahu. The warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours.

At 11 a.m. HST on Monday, Sept. 10, 2018, the center of Hurricane Olivia was located 435 miles ENE of Hilo; 495 miles ENE of Kailua-Kona; 495 miles ENE of South Point; 475 miles E of Hāna; 505 miles E of Kahului; 535 miles E of Kaunakakai; 535 miles E of Lānaʻi City; and 595 miles E of Honolulu (near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 148.7 West).

According to the latest situation overview issued by the CPHC, “Hurricane Olivia is expected to bring strong winds, heavy rainfall, and high surf to parts of the state this week. Olivia is forecast to close in on the main Hawaiian Islands Tuesday and move over portions of the island chain Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maui and the Big Island will be the first to experience impacts from Olivia.”

The overview also included information relating to the onset of winds: “Damaging tropical storm force winds may begin as early as Tuesday afternoon across Maui and the Big Island. Additionally, hurricane force wind gusts are possible as Olivia moves across the state Tuesday night and Wednesday. It is important to remember that the mountainous terrain of Hawaiʻi can produce localized areas of highly enhanced winds, even well away from the tropical cyclone center.”

As for rain, the chance for flooding rainfall will increase rapidly late Tuesday and will remain a significant threat through at least Wednesday, according to the agency.  “Storm total rainfall amounts are expected to be around 10 to 15 inches, with isolated areas up to 20 inches.”

A continued west to WSW motion is expected for the next few days. Forecasters with the CPHC say the center of Olivia will be moving over the main Hawaiian Islands Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Little change in intensity is expected today, with gradual weakening expected afterward. According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Olivia is expected to approach the islands as a strong tropical storm.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles, according to the CPHC.

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PREVIOUS POST:

UPDATE: 8 a.m. HST 9.10.18

Olivia has maintained its strength as a Category 1 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds near 85 mph, with higher gusts. The system also slowed yet again and is now tracked moving towards the West near 8 mph.

A Tropical Storm WARNING remains in effect for Maui County (including the islands of Maui, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi and Kahoʻolawe) and Hawaiʻi County. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Oʻahu. The warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours.

At 8 a.m. HST on Monday, Sept. 10, 2018, Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters located the center of Hurricane Olivia 475; miles ENE of Hilo; 535 miles ENE of Kailua-Kona; 535 miles ENE of South Point; 520 miles E of Hāna; 550 miles E of Kahului; 580 miles E of Kaunakakai; 580 miles E of Lānaʻi City; and 640 miles E of Honolulu (near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 148.1 West).

LOCAL AREA FORECASTS: (Click here for a drop down menu of your local area forecast)
*Below are some highlights as of 5:27 a.m. HST from the local area report for specific areas around Maui County:

WEST MAUI: (Lahaina, Olowalu and Nāpili) Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts.

LEEWARD WEST: (Lahaina, Kāʻanapali) Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts.

WINDWARD WEST MAUI (Including Wailuku) Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 55 mph.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 4-8 inches, with locally higher amounts

CENTRAL VALLEY: (Kahului, Puʻunēnē and Māʻalaea)Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts.

WINDWARD HALEAKALA: (Haʻikū, Hāna and Kīpahulu)Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 4-8 inches, with locally higher amounts.

LEEWARD HALEAKALA: (Kīhei and Mākena)Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 4-8 inches, with locally higher amounts.

HALEAKALA SUMMIT: Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional around 1 inch.

LANAI MAKAI (Mānele): Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 4-8 inches, with locally higher amounts.

LANAI MAUKA (Lānaʻi City): Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: 4-8 inches, with locally higher amounts.

MOLOKAI WINDWARD (Kalaupapa): Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph . Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts.

MOLOKAI LEEWARD (Kaunakakai): Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts.

Forecasters say tropical storm wind conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area starting late Tuesday.   Olivia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible, especially over windward sections of Maui County and the Big Island.

A turn toward the WSW is forecast to start later today, and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. Forecasters with the CPHC say the center of Olivia will be moving over the main Hawaiian Islands Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Forecasters with the CPHC sat little change in strength is forecast today, with slight weakening starting tonight and continuing through Tuesday; however, Olivia is forecast to be a strong tropical storm when it reaches the Hawaiian Islands.

According to the latest area synopsis issued by the National Weather Service, “The latest forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center has Olivia moving through the eastern end of the state late Tuesday into Wednesday as a tropical storm, then passing south of Oʻahu and Kauaʻi Wednesday into Thursday… A wet pattern with gusty trades will likely hold Thursday through Friday as Olivia continues westward and away from the state. A drying trend appears likely from east to west Friday through the upcoming weekend.”

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.

PREVIOUS POST:

UPDATE: 5 a.m. HST 9.10.18

Hurricane Olivia had intensified overnight, with maximum sustained winds at 85 mph, and slowed its forward advance to 10 mph toward the west.

A Tropical Storm WARNING is now in effect for Maui County (including the islands of Maui, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi and Kahoʻolawe) and Hawaiʻi County. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Oʻahu. The warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours.

At 5 a.m. HST on Monday, Sept. 10, 2018, the center of Hurricane Olivia was located 475 miles ENE of Hilo; 535 miles ENE of Kailua-Kona; 535 miles ENE of South Point; 520 miles E of Hāna; 550 miles E of Kahului; 580 miles E of Kaunakakai; 580 miles E of Lānaʻi City; and 640 miles E of Honolulu (near 21.7N 148.0W).

A turn toward the WSW is expected to start later today. This WSW motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center forecasts tropical storm conditions to start over parts of Hawaii late Tuesday.

“Little change in strength is forecast today, with slight weakening starting tonight and continuing through Tuesday. However, Olivia is forecast to be a strong tropical storm when it reaches the Hawaiian Islands,” forecasters with the CPHC said.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles, according to the CPHC.

LOCAL AREA FORECASTS: (Click here for a drop down menu of your local area forecast)
*Below are some highlights from the local area report for specific areas around Maui County:

WEST MAUI: (Lahaina, Olowalu and Nāpili) Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts.

LEEWARD WEST: (Lahaina, Kāʻanapali) Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts.

WINDWARD WEST MAUI (Including Wailuku) Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 55 mph.  Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 4-8 inches, with locally higher amounts

CENTRAL VALLEY: (Kahului, Puʻunēnē and Māʻalaea)Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts.

WINDWARD HALEAKALA: (Haʻikū, Hāna and Kīpahulu)Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 4-8 inches, with locally higher amounts.

LEEWARD HALEAKALA: (Kīhei and Mākena)Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 4-8 inches, with locally higher amounts.

HALEAKALA SUMMIT: Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional around 1 inch.

LANAI MAKAI (Mānele): Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 4-8 inches, with locally higher amounts.

LANAI MAUKA (Lānaʻi City): Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: 4-8 inches, with locally higher amounts.

MOLOKAI WINDWARD (Kalaupapa): Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts.

MOLOKAI LEEWARD (Kaunakakai): Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts.

Forecasters say tropical storm wind conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area starting late Tuesday.   Olivia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible, especially over windward sections of Maui County and the Big Island.

On the water, large swells generated by Olivia will spread from east to west across the Hawaiian Islands early this week. This will cause surf to build along exposed east facing shorelines as Olivia approaches

According to the latest forecast discussion issued by the CPHC, “Olivia will likely remain a hurricane through 36 hours. After that, increasing vertical wind shear is forecast to take its toll on Olivia, so that it may be a strong tropical storm within 48 hours. Additional slow weakening is expected to persist during days 3 through 5.”

Forecasters with the CPHC advise the public: “It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track and intensity when planning for Olivia. Persons on all the main Hawaiian Islands should continue preparing for the likelihood of direct impacts from this system this week. Those impacts could include intense flooding rainfall, damaging winds, large and dangerous surf, and storm surge. Regardless of the exact track and intensity that Olivia takes as it approaches the islands, significant effects often extend far from the center. In particular, the mountainous terrain of Hawaiʻi can produce localized areas of strongly enhanced winds and rainfall, even well away from the tropical cyclone center.”

Olivia 5-day cone of uncertainty. PC: (9.10.18, 11 p.m. HST) NOAA/CPHC

Olivia satellite imagery. PC: (9.10.18, 11 p.m. HST) NOAA/CPHC

Olivia satellite imagery. PC: (9.10.18, 11 p.m. HST) NOAA/CPHC

Olivia satellite imagery. PC: (9.10.18, 11 p.m. HST) NOAA/CPHC

Olivia most likely arrival time of tropical storm force winds. PC: (9.10.18, 11 p.m. HST) NOAA/CPHC

Olivia earliest arrival time of tropical storm force winds. PC: (9.10.18, 11 p.m. HST) NOAA/CPHC

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