Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for January 02, 2021

January 2, 2021, 7:15 AM HST
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Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny, with a high near 84. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 69. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Sunday: Isolated showers between 7am and 1pm. Sunny, with a high near 84. East northeast wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

South Side

Today: Sunny, with a high near 84. Breezy, with an east wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 67. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

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Sunday: Isolated showers after noon. Sunny, with a high near 84. East northeast wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

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Today: Sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy, with a northeast wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers before midnight. Mostly clear, with a low around 68. Breezy, with a northeast wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Central Maui

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Today: Isolated showers before 9am. Sunny, with a high near 82. Windy, with an east wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 66. Breezy, with a northeast wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Sunday: Isolated showers after 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy, with an east wind 14 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny, with a high near 71. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 18 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 57. Breezy, with an east wind 17 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

East Maui

Today: Scattered showers, mainly between 8am and noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy, with an east wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers, mainly after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Sunday: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy, with an east wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Sunny, with a high near 77. Windy, with an east northeast wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 62. Windy, with an east northeast wind 14 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

Sunday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. East northeast wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 20 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 69. Breezy, with an east wind 18 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy, with an east wind 17 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

An area of high pressure located 1100 miles northeast of the islands will continue to move east through tonight. This action will result in weakening trade winds, trending down to light to moderate speeds by tonight, then hold through Wednesday of next week. Showers may become less frequent with the diminishing trades.

Discussion

The winds have diminished at the lower elevations to where we could cancel the wind advisory for parts of Maui County and the Big Island. It is still breezy but not as breezy compared to 24 to 36 hours ago. On the other hand the winds have strengthen atop the Big Island summits early in the evening, reaching the sustained 45 mph advisory threshold. This advisory is good til 6 pm HST late this afternoon.
Periods of scattered showers continue to move through the main Hawaiian Islands this early Saturday morning, affecting mainly the windward and mountain areas of all the islands exposed to this flow. The breezy trades may have carried a few rain drops into the lee side of the smaller islands, but rainfall totals are very meager there. We are anticipating plenty of sunshine by mid morning especially along the leeward shoreline. Trade showers will be picking up again this evening but with the potential of being fewer than this morning.
Further down the road…an approaching front from the west will cause the ridge from the departing high to move closer to the islands. The ridge is currently 415 miles north of Kauai. By late Monday night, the ridge will be roughly 160 miles north of Oahu and Maui, supporting light to moderate trades. The front is expected to stay a couple of hundred miles north of Kauai Tuesday into Wednesday, but the development of a surface trough west of Kauai may cause the trades to turn light and variable across the smaller islands during the second half of next week. The trough dissipates allowing moderate to locally strong trades to build back in next weekend. With the lighter winds, expect a sea and land breeze regime to be the main focus. With a weak trough aloft, there could be a few more showers around during the afternoon hours.

Aviation

A high pressure system passing by north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep breezy trade winds in the forecast through this weekend. Low level winds this strong will produce moderate turbulence below 8000 feet over and immediately south through west of all island mountains. A jet stream and narrow upper trough near the Big Island will produce Moderate Clear Air Turbulence between FL250-450 for all areas east of Oahu this morning. AIRMET Tango for both low level and upper level Moderate Turbulence remains in effect.
Brief passing showers will favor windward and mountain areas with isolated showers possible over leeward slopes. Tempo Mountain Obscuration is possible over the windward slopes of some islands through the morning hours.

Marine

Strong east-northeast trade winds will continue today, then gradually trend down Sunday through the first half of the upcoming week as the ridge weakens. The Small Craft Advisory will remain in place through Sunday due to a combination of winds and seas through the weekend. This advisory will likely continue through the first half of the week due to seas as overlapping large northwest swells move through.
Surf along north facing shores will ease through the day today, potentially dipping below advisory levels by tonight. The offshore buoys to the north and northwest reflected this downward trend overnight with the peak swell energy in the 14-16 second bands out of the north-northwest (340 deg). The active pattern across the northern Pacific is forecast to continue over the weekend through next week with a series of systems sending overlapping northwest swells through the islands. The first in the series should begin to fill in by tonight (out of 320 deg), then peak Sunday night into Monday near warning levels. Guidance depicts this episode slowly lowering to advisory levels for north and west facing shores Tuesday.
A large fetch setting up over the northwest Pacific within the 310- 330 directional bands relative to the islands shown in the guidance Sunday through Monday will potentially deliver the next warning- level event to exposed north and west facing shores around midweek. A similar pulse arriving Friday into Saturday is shown following this.
Although lowering daily tidal ranges will limit the extent of the wave runup next week, overlapping large northwest swells described above will only worsen the ongoing coastal erosion issues for vulnerable shores exposed to north and west swells. Peak monthly tides for January are expected from the 10th through the 15th.
Surf along east facing shores will remain near the advisory level of 8 ft (faces) over the weekend, then gradually lower early next week as the trades ease.

Fire weather

Trade winds will remain breezy through the weekend, and leeward relative humidity values will drop down to 50 percent or less each afternoon. With abnormally dry long term conditions in place over leeward areas, there will be elevated fire weather concerns, though Red Flag Warnings do not appear likely.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Windward, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Oahu Koolau, Molokai, Maui Windward West, Maui Central Valley, Windward Haleakala.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Oahu Leeward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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