Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for February 14, 2021

February 14, 2021, 7:15 AM HST
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Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny, with a high near 82. Light and variable wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Mostly clear, with a low around 69. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Washington’s Birthday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Light and variable wind becoming west around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

South Side

Today: Scattered showers after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 82. East wind 9 to 11 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Mostly clear, with a low around 67. East wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

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Washington’s Birthday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

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Today: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy, with a south southeast wind 13 to 15 mph becoming north northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. South southeast wind 5 to 9 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Washington’s Birthday: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming east northeast 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Central Maui

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Today: Scattered showers, mainly before 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. West southwest wind around 10 mph becoming east northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight: Isolated showers before 7pm, then isolated showers after 1am. Mostly clear, with a low around 66. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west southwest in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Washington’s Birthday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming east northeast around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Upcountry

Today: Isolated showers after 1pm. Sunny, with a high near 67. East wind 8 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers before 7pm, then isolated showers after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. West wind 5 to 8 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Washington’s Birthday: Scattered showers, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. Light and variable wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

East Maui

Today: Frequent showers, mainly before 1pm. High near 78. West wind around 14 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. East wind 8 to 13 mph becoming west in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Washington’s Birthday: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. East southeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. East wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Washington’s Birthday: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kaunakakai

Today: Scattered showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. East wind around 7 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Washington’s Birthday: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

An upper low southeast of the Big Island will glance the Big Island as it shifts southwestward, resulting in a bit of unsettle weather for the Big Island today. An approaching front from the west is expected to bring on a land and sea breeze pattern for the smaller islands from today to until the front reaches Kauai on Tuesday night. The front is expected to stall near Kauai and gradually falls apart there, at which time the trade winds gradually returns. However, the upper level low southeast of the Big Island comes into range southwest of Kauai on Tuesday night, and its appearance will lead to a round of unsettled weather for mainly the western part of the island chain around the middle of the week.

Discussion

The most recent model runs suggest the upper low currently located 440 miles south-southeast of the Big Island, which has been moving southwest, to begin shifting west later today. Its path will glance the Big Island today, with an uptick in afternoon showers for the lee and upper elevations.
The tropical air mass that spread west across the islands yesterday and tonight has resulted in an uptick in trade showers for most islands, but especially windward Big Island. Some of the clouds, with heights to 15k feet, would at times bring fog to the summits of the Big Island. Relative humidity remains high at the summits above 75 percent, and patches of ice have been reported there by park rangers. There is a Winter Weather Advisory, good until 10 am HST, at which time most if not all of the ice would have melted. The winds are down to the 20 mph range. Hence, the Wind Advisory has been lowered.
A front currently 460 miles northwest of Kauai continues on its approach to the islands. This has cause the trade winds to veer to the southeast in the past 18 hours. The exposed windward waters are breezy in some spots, but elsewhere can expect much lighter winds, prompting a sea breeze pattern for the smaller islands. The air mass over these islands isn’t very stable, and with daytime heating, lead to some spotty afternoon/early evening showers over the interior and lee areas of the smaller islands. As the night progresses, a land breeze will shove most of the afternoon showers into the adjacent waters. This pattern should hold through Tuesday.
The forecast models are in good agreement for the front to stall near Kauai Tuesday night. This front will have breezy northeast winds west of the boundary. At this time of Tuesday night, mainly moderate trades will be returning to the other islands. Weather with the front means showery weather for Kauai County, and basically trade wind showers for the remaining islands. Wednesday through Thursday, the front weakens or dissipates around Kauai but its moisture still lingers. The upper low mentioned earlier will come into range and begin enhancing this moisture field Wednesday through at least Thursday, and some of the moisture may impact Oahu as well. Details still needs to be worked out, but we could be looking at potential heavy rain episode.

Aviation

An upper level disturbance south-southeast of the Big Island will drift southwestward over the next few days bringing periods of showers and brief periods of MVFR conditions over the islands. Trade winds will shift directions out of the southeast today as the high pressure ridge north of the islands weakens.
In a southeast wind flow pattern local scale overnight land and daytime sea breezes will develop over most of the smaller islands with a slight east-southeast flavor along the eastern slopes. Clouds and showers will favor mountain and interior sections of these islands. Southeast winds will bring enhanced clouds and showers to the east to southeast sections of the Big Island through the weekend. Periods of MVFR conditions are possible over the next 24 hours mainly over the eastern half of the state.
Stronger winds aloft will bring moderate to severe turbulence to the eastern islands through the morning hours. SIGMET Zulu will cover the Severe Turbulence area, and AIRMET Tango will cover moderate Clear Air Turbulence affecting the eastern islands.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for tempo mountain obscuration in low clouds and showers for Oahu, and E through SE sections of the Big Island. This AIRMET may be expanded to other islands later this morning as shower bands develop.
AIRMET Tango in effect for moderate upper level turbulence over Maui and the Big Island. This AIRMET will likely continue through the the morning hours.

Marine

High pressure will remain nearly stationary northeast of the islands through Tuesday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This will keep moderate to fresh southeast winds in place over the eastern islands, with lighter winds over the western end of the state. Winds will be locally strong along the windward waters of the Big Island and Maui today. The cold front is expected to stall near Kauai Tuesday night through Thursday while high pressure builds to the northeast and northwest of the state. This will bring a return of trade winds to the island chain Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the trades ramping up to fresh to strong levels Thursday into next weekend.
A combination of winds and seas will keep Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions in place across most waters through tonight. The leeward Oahu and leeward Maui waters, as well as Maalaea Bay will be sheltered from the stronger winds and larger seas however, so the SCA has been cancelled here. Large seas may linger across a good chunk of the windward waters through Monday, so the SCA may eventually need to be extended here.
A large west-northwest swell will move through the islands today, with the swell gradually lowering tonight and Monday. The NOAA buoys northwest of Hawaii have been running near or a bit below WW3 guidance most of the night. As a result, will transition the High Surf Warning over to a High Surf Advisory for these areas, which will be in effect through 6 AM Monday. The west-northwest swell direction will result in higher surf along north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai and the Big Island, so will keep the HSA going here through 6 PM Monday. Surf is expected drop below advisory levels across all of the smaller islands by Monday night, but may hold at advisory levels along west facing shores of the Big Island. Surf is expected to remain below advisory thresholds for all shores Tuesday through the end of the week.
Surf along east facing shores will get a small boost today, then lower through mid week. East shore surf should then trend up late in the week as trade winds increase over and upstream of the islands. Surf along south facing shores will remain small through the week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Oahu Koolau, Molokai, Maui Windward West, Maui Central Valley, Windward Haleakala.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Niihau, Kauai Windward, Kauai Leeward, Kona.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM HST this morning for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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