Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for October 04, 2021

October 4, 2021, 7:15 AM HST
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Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 90. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 68 to 76. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 90. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 87 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 71 near the shore to 48 to 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 87 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 68 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 87 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 71 near the shore to 48 to 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 87 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 63 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 67 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 58 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 67 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to occasionally breezy trade winds will continue through the first half of the week, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations. Trade winds are expected to strengthen beginning Wednesday, with windy conditions possible by the end of the week and upcoming weekend.

Discussion

Guidance remains in decent agreement and depicts showery conditions continuing through the first half of the week over the western end of the state due to a combination of an upper trough extending southward into the area and a sufficient amount of moisture moving through. Observations at the gages around the state reflect this, with 24-hr accumulations (through 1 AM HST this morning) ranging from 2 to 4 inches over Kauai and a quarter to half of an inch on Oahu. Although much of these showers will favor the typical windward locations, some will spill over into our dry leeward areas occasionally (best chance overnight/early morning periods). For the eastern end of the state, more of a stable trade wind pattern has limited accumulations, which will continue through much of the week.
Models and ensembles project a tightening pressure gradient by or around midweek, that supports locally strong trades through the upcoming weekend. The aforementioned upper low will continue to lift northeastward and weaken by midweek. This combined with some drier air moving in from the east should limit windward shower coverage into the second half of the week statewide.

Aviation

Moderate to breezy trade winds will persist across the state today. Slight atmospheric instability combined with enhanced moisture is expected to remain across the western end of the island chain this morning. This will result in low clouds and frequent showers across the western half of the state, which will likely keep periods of MVFR low ceilings and reduced visibility in heavier showers over windward sections of these islands. For the remaining islands, expect a more typical trade wind distribution of low clouds and showers concentrated along windward facing coasts and slopes. This may result in brief periods of MVFR conditions this morning.
AIRMET SIERRA is in effect for mountain obscuration along north through east facing sections of Kauai, Oahu and Molokai above 2 thousand feet due to the low clouds and showers.

Marine

High pressure north of the Hawaiian Islands will continue to produce moderate to fresh trade winds over the coastal and offshore waters into Tuesday. Trade winds will likely strengthen from Wednesday into the weekend, as a stronger high builds in north of the region.
Small surf along north facing shores this morning will get a boost from a small, long-period west-northwest swell generated by Typhoon Mindulle. The forerunners of this swell have reached Kauai this morning and will spread to the other islands later tonight. This swell will last through midweek, then diminish thereafter. Small south swells will keep surf from going flat along south facing shores through much of the week. A slightly larger south swell may elevate surf heights from Friday into next weekend. East shore surf will hold fairly steady through Tuesday. Strengthening trades over and upstream of the islands will build surf heights along east facing shores from late Wednesday into next weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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