Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for October 05, 2021

October 5, 2021, 7:15 AM HST
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Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 74. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 70. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 86. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 87 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 67 to 74 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 83 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 85. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 87 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 67 to 74 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 68. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming sunny. Breezy. Highs 67 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 62 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 74 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will strengthen Wednesday through Friday, with windy conditions anticipated over the weekend. Clouds and showers will tend to focus over windward and mauka areas, but will occasionally blow leeward, especially with the stronger winds.

Discussion

Trade winds will prevail through the forecast period, supported by surface high pressure to the distant N and NE. Moderate to locally breezy trade winds are expected into Wednesday, with a steady strengthening of the trade winds expected from Wednesday into Friday as high pressure consolidates and moves S toward the islands. Some lowering of surface pressures to the S of the islands will add to the gradient over the weekend, and windy conditions appear likely at that time. A Wind Advisory will likely be required for at least portions of the area. Trade wind speeds may remain elevated into early next week.
An E-W oriented trough aloft several hundred miles N of the islands is transporting some high clouds over the Big Island and adjacent waters, and is still supporting some instability over the Kauai end of the chain. However, a lack of significant moisture will limit shower coverage and intensity. The general expectation is therefore for breezy trades to support a typical trade wind weather pattern into the weekend as the trough aloft gradually weakens. Although showers will tend to be focused over windward and mauka areas during this time, the strengthening trades will tend to carry showers leeward with greater efficiency, particularly at night and early morning.
Long range guidance indicates a surge in moisture approaching the islands from the SE in about a week or so. Confidence is low in this outcome, but it bears watching.

Aviation

Moderate to locally strong trades will continue through tonight, with high pressure centered well north of the islands. Beginning Wednesday, high pressure will be forced southward, increasing the local pressure gradient and causing trades to ramp up quickly. AIRMET Tango for low-level turbulence in the lee of the mountains remains in effect and will likely remain so for the next several days.
VFR conditions will prevail across the state through the next 24 hours, with brief MVFR cigs/vis possible across windward sections from areas of moisture embedded in the low-level trade wind flow.

Marine

High pressure north of the area will continue to produce moderate to breezy trade winds. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is currently posted for the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island. A stronger high will build north of the area beginning tonight into Wednesday. The SCA will likely be expanded across most other coastal waters by later in the week as trades increase into the breezy to strong range.
A small, long period west northwest swell will continue to fill in, peak later today through early Wednesday, then lower gradually through the remainder of the week and on through the weekend. A series of small, mainly background south swells can be expected through Thursday. A larger long period south swell is expected to fill in by Friday, peak Saturday, then lower slowly through Sunday. Easterly trade winds will continue to produce short period choppy surf along east facing shores through Wednesday. With the expected increase in trade winds over and upwind of the islands beginning Wednesday, surf heights are expected to increase later in the week and on into the weekend.

Fire weather

With above-average KBDI values still well above 600, the strengthening winds over the next couple of days could result in Red Flag Warning conditions, depending if RH values get sufficiently low. Forecast confidence is not high enough to issue a Fire Weather Watch at this juncture.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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