Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for October 30, 2021

October 30, 2021, 7:15 AM HST
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Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86. North winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 60 to 68. Light winds.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 83 to 88. North winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 62. North winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

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Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 83 to 88. Light winds.

North Shore

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Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows 59 to 65 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

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Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 86. North winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 59 to 66. Light winds.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 86. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Light winds.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 47 to 52. Light winds.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows 59 to 65 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Light winds.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Lows around 66. Light winds.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 85. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 59 to 70. Light winds.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 85. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Mostly dry and stable conditions with light winds are anticipated into early next week. The best chance for a few showers will be through the afternoon periods over leeward and interior locations. A return of a more typical trade wind pattern is expected by Wednesday, which should continue through the second half of the week.

Discussion

Guidance remains persistent and depicts the weakness in the ridge lingering into early next week due to broad upper troughing over the region and a couple of fronts passing to the north. The light easterly background flow in the islands will continue to diminish this morning, then shift out of a northerly direction later today through Sunday. Although sea breezes will lead to clouds and a few showers setting up over leeward and interior locations through the afternoon hours (best chance western end of the state where better moisture resides), rainfall accumulations should remain light due to the stable and mostly dry conditions in place. Overnight and early morning land breezes will translate to mostly clear conditions for most locations.
For the extended period, guidance remains in decent agreement and shows a return of a more typical trade wind pattern Tuesday night through Wednesday as the ridge strengthens to the north. Clouds and showers will shift back over windward and mountain locations, with the best chances being overnight through the early morning hours. A residual band of moisture associated with the tail-end of an old front may drift southward into the islands through the second half of next week, which could support better shower coverage.

Aviation

The relaxed pressure gradient across the state will result in light and variable background flow this weekend, which will allow local nighttime land breezes and afternoon sea breezes to develop over each of the islands. The atmosphere is also expected to remain stable and relatively dry. Scattered to locally broken low clouds have been moving over portions of windward Kauai since last evening. Elsewhere, the land breezes have kept skies clear over most areas, with VFR conditions prevailing.
Once the sea breezes become well established this afternoon, there will likely be increasing cloud cover and a chance of showers over portions of the islands. Brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible over some areas, especially any leeward and interior sections where sea breeze convergence occurs in combination with sufficient low-level moisture.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for moderate upper-level turbulence above the state between FL250 and FL400. This AIRMET may need to be extended past sunrise this morning, but conditions may improve later today or tonight. No other AIRMETs are anticipated through this evening.

Marine

Light and variable winds will continue into early next week, allowing a land/sea breeze pattern to set up near the coasts. Locally breezy trade winds will start to make a comeback the second half of next week.
Surf along north facing shores will remain small through the first half of the day today (lingering north swell), then begin to trend up by sunset this evening for north and west facing shores of Kauai and Oahu as a new, long-period, north-northwest swell arrives. Heights could reach the advisory levels for north and west facing shores of Kauai and Oahu late tonight, then along north facing shores of Maui through the day Sunday as the swell builds down the island chain. This swell will hold around these levels through Monday with the swell direction trending more north.
Another large northwest swell is expected to begin filling in Monday night and peak Tuesday. Guidance is showing the swell peaking in the 10 to 12 foot, 14 to 16 second range. If this holds, this will likely warrant a High Surf Warning for both north and west facing shores of the smaller islands. This swell may also require a Small Craft Advisory for seas (mostly in swell).
The background small south swell will continue to lower through the weekend. A small, but longer period south swell is expected to arrive Wednesday.
Surf along east facing shores will remain near flat levels, with the exception being along east facing shores exposed to northerly swell.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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