Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for November 23, 2021

November 23, 2021, 7:15 AM HST
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Photo Credit: Laila Reiss

West Side

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 88. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 74. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 85 to 90. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 68. North winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

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Wednesday: Sunny. Highs 85 to 90. Light winds becoming north up to 15 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

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Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

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Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Highs around 88. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 72. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 88. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. Light winds becoming east up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs 74 to 83. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 66. Light winds.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny. Highs 79 to 89. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 72. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 89. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate easterly trade winds will continue today, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations. Trade winds will trend down this evening through midweek, potentially enough for a localized land and sea breeze regime to become established. An area of moisture will approach and move into the eastern end of the state from the east late tonight through Wednesday, which will keep the rain chances up going into the second half of the week, especially for Maui and the Big Island. Easterly winds should remain light enough for localized land and sea breeze conditions to continue through the upcoming weekend as a series of fronts pass to the north.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement through midweek and depicts moderate easterly trades holding for a good portion of the day before before easing tonight through midweek as a weakness forms in the ridge shifts southward due to a passing front. An area of moisture moving through continues to produce steady showers over and around Oahu, where 24-hr peak totals have exceeded 2″. As this area continues westward through the morning hours today, Kauai could get into the mix or observe better shower coverage.
Another area of moisture will approach and move into the eastern end of the state from the east late tonight through Wednesday. This combined with lowering upper heights as a weak upper low drifts southwestward near the eastern end of the state will keep the rainfall chances in the forecast going into the second half of the week. Although the best shower coverage will favor windward areas of Maui and the Big Island, where PWs are projected to climb into the 1.5″ to 2″ range and hold into Friday, some increase in shower coverage will be possible over the western end as well. Trades will remain on the light side through the upcoming weekend due to a progressive pattern ongoing across the northern Pacific featuring a series of fronts.

Aviation

A narrow band of low level moisture moving within the gentle to moderate trade wind flow will continue to produce MVFR conditions across windward slopes of Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai early this morning. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for these islands and will likely be dropped for Molokai by sunrise, followed by improvement from east to west later this morning. Across the rest of the state, the easterly trade wind flow will drop slightly today, with VFR conditions prevailing and a mid level ridge capping low clouds below 8,000 ft.
A slow moving upper level trough is producing moderate turbulence above FL280 around the Big Island. AIRMET Tango will likely be in place around the Big Island through the day.

Marine

A high pressure ridge will drift into the northern offshore waters and remain in a weakened state as a cold front passes by far to the north of the island chain. Light to moderate easterly trade winds will keep wind speeds below Small Craft Advisory conditions for all coastal waters through the weekend.
A northwest swell will maintain surf in the 4 to 8 foot range along north and west facing shores through tonight. A larger northwest swell will arrive on Wednesday, building surf heights by Wednesday night. This northwest swell will peak on Thanksgiving Day producing advisory level surf along exposed north and west facing shores. This northwest swell energy will show decreasing trends, below advisory levels, on Friday and then hold at fun size levels through the weekend. Surf heights along east facing shores will remain small with nearly flat conditions along south facing shores of all islands.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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