Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for November 26, 2021

November 26, 2021, 7:15 AM HST
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Photo Credit: Travis Guthrie

West Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 76 to 84. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 71. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 85. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 86. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 62 to 71. North winds up to 15 mph.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Saturday: Sunny. Highs around 86. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 65 to 70 near the shore to 46 to 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Central Maui

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Sunny. Highs 79 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 62 to 69. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 79 to 86. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Light winds.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. Light winds.

Saturday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 65 to 70 near the shore to 46 to 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 71 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 62. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 67 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 55 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 67 to 86. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Mainly dry conditions and easing winds are expected during the next couple days as a front approaches from the northwest. The front will merge with a developing trough northeast of the state Saturday night, allowing trade winds to return and strengthen to moderate and locally breezy levels Sunday through Tuesday. Trade wind showers are expected to increase in coverage and intensity early next week, with unsettled conditions and light winds returning for the middle of next week.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1027 mb high is centered around 1800 miles northeast of Honolulu, with a ridge axis extending southwestward to around 200 miles north of Kauai. Meanwhile, a cold front is located around 800 miles northwest of the Garden Isle. The resulting gradient is producing moderate trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy skies across the state, with cloud coverage the highest over windward locales. Radar imagery shows a few light showers over windward and mauka areas of Kauai and Oahu, with dry conditions elsewhere. Main short term concerns revolve around rain chances and trade wind trends during the next couple days.
The front to the distant northwest will approach and pass by to the north of the islands during the next couple days, and this will suppress the high pressure ridge axis southward to a location near or just north of Kauai by daybreak Saturday. Moderate trade winds are expected to prevail today, before easing tonight. Land breezes are expected in many areas by late tonight, with sea breezes developing in the more sheltered areas on Saturday. The front will fizzle out and merge with a developing surface trough northeast of the state Saturday night and Sunday, while a new high builds north of the island chain. This should bring a return of light trade winds Saturday night, with the trades strengthening to moderate to locally breezy levels Sunday. The trough will slowly approach the state from the east early next week, with a high pressure ridge axis remaining nearly stationary north of the islands. This should keep moderate to locally breezy trade winds in place through Tuesday. The trades are forecast to become disrupted Tuesday night through Thursday as the surface trough moves over the state, with winds remaining light during this time across the entire island chain.
As for the remaining weather details, very dry conditions are expected through Saturday, with a few light showers limited to mainly windward and mauka areas. A slight increase in trade wind showers will be possible Saturday night and Sunday as the trades return, but the pattern is expected to remain much drier than normal. We should then see a gradual increase in trade wind shower coverage and intensity Sunday night through Tuesday as an upper level low and surface trough approach from the east. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty in forecast details for the middle to latter part of next week, but overall it looks unsettled with the potential for some heavier showers for both windward and leeward areas as the surface trough and upper level low remain in the vicinity of the islands.
Strong 600 mb winds are expected Sunday through Tuesday, and could result in advisory and potentially warning level winds over the Big Island summits.

Aviation

Moderate trade winds will persist today and allow for isolated showers mainly along the windward coasts and slopes. Brief MVFR ceilings and visibility may accompany this activity but not expecting anything widespread. Trade winds will weaken slightly tonight into Saturday.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

A ridge of high pressure north of the state will gradually shift closer to the state over the next day as a front passes over the northern offshore water late Saturday. This will cause the trade winds to decrease to light to moderate speeds by Saturday. Winds are expected to increase Sunday into early next week as a high builds north of the state. At the same time, a trough is developing east of the state and will cause the trade winds to be more northeasterly Sunday through Tuesday. Some unsettled weather is also possible as this trough begins to move toward the west Tuesday into the middle of next week.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for large seas through late this afternoon. The Small Craft Advisory for the typical windy areas around Maui and the Big Island has been cancelled due to decreasing winds.
A reinforcing northwest swell has arrived and will likely peak this morning then steadily decline through Saturday. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for exposed north and west facing shores through this afternoon. Surf will likely decline to borderline advisory thresholds by this evening. A moderate northwest swell is expected to fill in Sunday, then gradually decline during the first half of next week. This swell could get near the advisory threshold along north facing shores. Minimal surf is expected along south facing shores. A slight increase is possible along east facing shores early next week due to a fetch of breezy trades over and upstream of the state.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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