Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for January 12, 2022

January 12, 2022, 7:15 AM HST
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Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 60 to 67. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Thursday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 61. North winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

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Thursday: Sunny. Highs around 83. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

North Shore

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Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 58 to 64 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

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Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 83. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 59 to 64. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 79 to 84. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east after midnight.

Thursday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 58 to 64 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 80. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 62. Northeast winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 80. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 80. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 53 to 65. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 82. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds will ease today, becoming light and variable over Kauai and Oahu this afternoon. The light winds will featuring overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes will hold in place over the western islands tonight through early next week, with light to locally moderate trade winds prevailing over the eastern end of the state. An upper level disturbance will bring a slight increase in showers as it passes through the islands this afternoon into this evening. Otherwise rather dry conditions will prevail through early next week, with a few showers developing over the island interiors each afternoon, and mainly dry conditions prevailing aside from a few windward showers each night.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a west-southwest to east-northeast oriented ridge of high pressure is located around 150 miles north of Kauai, while the remnant moisture from an old dissipated front lingers over windward sections of Maui and the Big Island. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies in most windward areas as well as leeward Kauai, with mostly clear conditions elsewhere. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over windward sections of Maui and the Big Island, with rain free weather elsewhere. Main short term concerns revolve around the diminishing trades and rain chances during the next few days.
The ridge of high pressure north of the state will settle southward near or over the western islands today, then hold nearly stationary through early next week. As a result, the trades are expected to ease off this morning, becoming light enough for sea breezes to develop in many areas on Kauai and Oahu this afternoon, while light to moderate trades hold in place over Maui County and the Big Island. Very little fluctuation in wind strength is then expected through early next week, with light and variable winds allowing for daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes over the western islands, while light to locally moderate trades prevail over the eastern end of the state.
As for the remaining weather details, old frontal moisture will keep showers rolling into windward sections of Maui and the Big Island this morning, with very little if any shower activity expected over Kauai and Oahu. A shortwave trough will approach from the west this afternoon and move through the islands this evening, which will likely bring a bit of an increase in shower activity to the island interiors despite the relatively dry airmass in place. Fairly dry conditions should then prevail Thursday through early next week. Sea breezes will result in a few showers each afternoon over the island interiors. Mainly dry conditions are expected during nights and mornings, with the exception of perhaps a shower or two hugging windward areas, particularly over Maui and the Big Island.

Aviation

A surface high pressure system, which is located far northeast of the Big island, continues to move rapidly toward the east- northeast away from the region. This is producing trade winds over the eastern islands early this morning. Low clouds and trade showers have remained focused over windward sections of the Big Island overnight. Periods of MVFR conditions may persist there into mid-morning. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail across most of the state.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration below 2000 feet was issued earlier tonight for low ceilings over windward sections of Maui and the Big Island. These conditions are expected to improve later this morning based on recent trends in satellite and radar data.
An east-northeast to west-southwest oriented surface ridge is moving toward the western islands as the surface high pressure system departs the region. As a result, the residual low-level trade wind flow will gradually weaken later this morning. This will likely allow local sea breeze circulations to develop over most of the islands by this afternoon. This may produce some clouds and a chance of brief showers over leeward and interior sections. Expect local land breezes to become established over many areas by early this evening. These downslope winds will likely cause skies to clear over most land areas a few hours after sunset, so VFR conditions should dominate across the state tonight.
Finally, AIRMET Tango for TEMPO moderate upper-level turbulence in the layer from FL300 to FL400 remains in effect for Kauai through Maui as an upper-level trough passes north of the area. Conditions are expected to improve in a few hours after the trough aloft moves away from the area. No other AIRMETS are anticipated later today.

Marine

Fresh to strong easterly trades will hold this morning, then quickly weaken and shift out of the east-southeast direction today through the second half of the week as a couple of fronts pass to the north. Light and variable winds over the Kauai and Oahu waters and light to moderate east-southeast winds over the Maui County and Big Island waters will be the result, which may persist through the upcoming weekend.
Surf along exposed north and west facing shores will remain above the seasonal averages through the second half of the week as overlapping west-northwest swells arrive and move through in response to an active pattern across the northern Pacific. The west-northwest swell that arrived Tuesday will hold today before gradually lowering tonight into Thursday. Latest observations at the nearshore and offshore buoys have been running several feet above predicted overnight, which supports the High Surf Warning and Small Craft Advisory continuing today.
As this swell slowly eases later today through tonight, the next pulse is forecast to arrive Thursday, which will drive the surf back toward warning levels Thursday through Friday (seas nearing the Small Craft Advisory level of 10 ft over exposed waters). Although a gradual downward trend is then expected over the weekend, another west-northwest swell arriving Saturday night may result in low-end advisory-level surf for exposed north and west facing shores Sunday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kona, Kohala, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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